By John C. Ogle | jcogle@atlaspwm.com
Ability to “listen” to the markets assumes an understanding of what drives certain indicators. As we know, pure interest rates (such as U.S. Treasury Rates) are driven by two factors: economic growth expectations, and expectations for the rate of inflation.
By John C. Ogle | jcogle@atlaspwm.com
As we continue navigating this climate, we look forward to bringing you these types of communications and aim to answer the questions of the day.
By John C. Ogle | jcogle@atlaspwm.com
On a very macro level, we think that there will be a modest market reaction to the election in the coming weeks. Markets like gridlock in Washington, and with the potential for a divided Congress, we think the eventual political landscape will impede immediate implementation of at least two of the more noteworthy Biden policy initiatives.
By John C. Ogle | jcogle@atlaspwm.com
This year has been like no other, and at Atlas we’re preparing for what will no doubt be an interesting few months of political, economic and social give-and-take.
By John C. Ogle | jcogle@atlaspwm.com
We think that global bank interventions, combined with aggressive fiscal policies have provided a safety net that the markets desired, and then some. We could parse out pieces of these programs, and debate the long-term effects of this level of government intervention in markets, but throughout the Summer… it is evident that investor’s spirits were buoyed.
By John C. Ogle | jcogle@atlaspwm.com
It’s important to bear in mind that historically, the markets don’t convey much information about the election other than the immediate three month period before the election. While market participants are watching the direction of current polling data and the possible outcome, markets are currently being much more influenced by factors such as the economic and financial impacts of the Coronavirus
By John C. Ogle | jcogle@atlaspwm.com
The second quarter of 2020 was a historic one by almost any economic metric. But, while we saw the worst economic decline in most of our lives, we also witnessed the current willingness of governments to act quickly to curtail economic decline and the resulting resiliency of the markets.
By John C. Ogle | jcogle@atlaspwm.com
In April, the Bureau of Labor Force Statistics put the unemployment rate at 14.75%,[3] and it is expected to reach nearly 16% during the third quarter. Questions we have to ask… is the market detached from the economic reality? And what business does the stock market have in rallying, anyway?
By John C. Ogle | jcogle@atlaspwm.com
I’ve used the analogy of hiking across a valley… we know that we’ll be able to get to the other side because we can see it, but what we don’t know is exactly what the terrain will be like between here and there. There might be streams to cross or rough patches to deal with along the trail.
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