Looking ahead, the consensus estimate has earnings growing about 20% in both the 3rd and 4th quarters of this year. If true, this could serve to put a firm floor under current market levels and provide the launch pad for future advances. This does not however indicate that stock prices can be expected to increase by this factor in the coming months.
On a very macro level, we think that there will be a modest market reaction to the election in the coming weeks. Markets like gridlock in Washington, and with the potential for a divided Congress, we think the eventual political landscape will impede immediate implementation of at least two of the more noteworthy Biden policy initiatives.
We think that global bank interventions, combined with aggressive fiscal policies have provided a safety net that the markets desired, and then some. We could parse out pieces of these programs, and debate the long-term effects of this level of government intervention in markets, but throughout the Summer… it is evident that investor’s spirits were buoyed.
It’s important to bear in mind that historically, the markets don’t convey much information about the election other than the immediate three month period before the election. While market participants are watching the direction of current polling data and the possible outcome, markets are currently being much more influenced by factors such as the economic and financial impacts of the Coronavirus